Your Odds with a Method

It’s a top Googled query, a burning question on everyone’s mind!

Charlie Whooph, CFE

Why is this ‘Odds of Success’ a top Googled, burning question on everyone’s mind? — bc It spells freedom? That, and a little recurrent trade income never hurt anyone!

What are MY odds WITH a Method?

According to a recent Gallup poll, an estimated 158 million invest. No doubt, most of these invested accounts consist of managed 401k plans. However, the last four years since the 2020 Pandemic popularity of Trading for Income has surged; trader participation increased 25% in 2021 dwarfing the 15% increase in 2019!

So, what happened to all those new traders hoping to swing trade their way to freedom? Within six months 13 percent of new traders were consistently profitable, but 87% quit and many of those within the first three months.

And the why is not what you think!

So, the why is not what you think! Do the stats differentiate between serious traders and those just gambling? No, the raw data consensus among brokers says 90% of day traders lose 90% of their funds within 90 days. These stats look grim, but it’s meaningless info unless we find out who are these traders. The statistic does drive home an important point. The 13% who become profitable had a Method. So, hang on — there is good news here.

You CAN succeed as a Trader For Income IF you have a METHOD! You can make swing trading your BUSINESS, claim TaxTraderStatus, write off expenses — which is nothing to scoff at — if you trade with a method. You must have a Method!

No, your trading business doesn’t need to look like this (above) — an desk full of monitors. Suffice to say the 13 percent of traders who survived had some sort of a viable method. But get this: An astounding 70% of traders who entered the trading profession in 2020, actually had a trading METHOD. ( What? What were the other 30% doing. ) In my opinion, the 70% understood trading to be more than jumping into a frenzy of tech darling excitement, more than mindless momentum. They had an intriguing, beautiful, professional trader’s METHOD. And Incidentally, the majority of the 70% relied on some form of chart or technical analysis.

This is good news! A bit of deductive reasoning says 13/70 gives us a 19%. So? — So, this is 1 in 5 chance of being successful in the trader profession! Coincidentally, that 1 in 5 odds also mirrors the odds of you being successful in a new business.

Nevertheless, it appears that with a viable method, one CAN indeed succeed in the trading profession.

It also begs the question, “What were the other 30% of traders doing — those who had no method?” And why were they doing it?

We’ll answer this in the next post. Thank you for reading. We'll see you then!

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